Livestock Analysis
Click this link to download the Table on Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production for Gedo, Juba and Bay/Bakool
Click this link to download the Table on Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production for Shabelle, Hiran, and Galgadud/South Mudug
Click this link to download the Table on Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production for Northeast and Northwest
Click this link to download the Table on Water, Rangeland and Livestock Body Conditions by Region
Click this link to download FSAU Technical Series Report on the 2006/07 Post Deyr Analysis (.zip 4930 KB)

Rangeland conditions throughout most of the country have significantly improved due to well distributed and above normal Deyr ‘06/’07 rains.  Water and pasture availability is average to very good in most parts of the key pastoral areas in the Northwest, Northeast, Central, and in the previously drought affected regions in Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Juba. Exceptions are localized pockets in eastern Sanaag and the area between Garowe and Jariban districts where rains were below normal. Importantly, the abundance of water, pasture and browse ensures a mild Jilaal season, the normally harsh long dry season between January and March.  As the result of widespread availability of pasture, browse and water, there is minimal livestock migration in most regions and migrations are confined to the traditional wet season grazing areas.  Exceptions include pastoralists in localized areas of poor rainfall in eastern Sanaag who have moved westwards into good pasture areas and pastoralists on the Kenya/Somalia border area who have moved further inland due to fears of conflict.  No unusual cross border livestock movements have been reported from the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Kenya, as rainfall performance in these countries was also reported to be average or above average.


Improved rangeland conditions have led to significant improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity for all livestock species throughout the country.  In the drought affected areas of the south and central regions, livestock recovery began to recover following the Gu ’06 rains and the exceptional rangeland conditions following the Deyr ‘06/’07 rains will serve as a further boost to their recovery. 

In the worst drought affected regions of Gedo, Juba, Bay and Bakool, as well as in Hiran and parts of Central region, calving and kidding, as well as milk production was low in Deyr ‘06/’07.  However, high conception in the Haga (Sept-Oct. ’06) following livestock body condition recovery in the Gu ’06, means that high kidding is anticipated in February-March ’07 and high calving in April-May ’07.  Currently, most livestock in all the drought affected regions are conceived. This follows normal trends in which exceptionally high rates of conception follow extended drought periods as livestock body conditions recover. In the northwest and northeast regions, sheep/goat kidding and lambing rates, as well as milk production were good in most areas during the Deyr ‘06/’07.   Camel calving rates, however, were low, but conception during this time was high. 


In southern and central regions, livestock prices for all species have increased significantly over the last six months, following the recovery of livestock body conditions and productivity.  January 2007 cattle prices increased 247% in Juba, 195% in the Sorghum Belt and 140% in Shabelle since they collapsed last January ’06.  Sheep and goat prices have shown similar levels of increase and are currently at their highest levels in several years.  As a result, terms of trade (goat to cereals), the measure of purchasing power for pastoralist, is also significantly improved in all markets, between 105-905% over the same period.

Cases of an unknown camel disease, affecting mainly adult animals, have been reported in all the regions except Juba. The camel disease was first reported in Afar Region, Ethiopia, where it has been monitored for the last few 3-4 years. The disease is disperse, not affecting all pastoralists or herds, has no observable symptoms, and results in the sudden collapse and death of the camel. Reports suggest that localised rates of mortality within herds affected are around 10-20%. FSAU will continue to monitor the situation and its potential impact on the livestock sector. Rift Valley Fever (RVF), which has been confirmed in cross-border areas of northeastern Kenya, also remains a concern for pastoral recovery in southern Somalia.  After an analysis of the conditions and vector of spread, the most likely scenario is that if RVF were to be confirmed in Somalia, the likely impact would not be as severe as the 1997/1998 outbreak in terms of spread and direct impact. This is due to the shorter rainfall period (Deyr ‘97/’98 compared to Deyr ‘06/’07 season), the current drying of previously flooded pastoral areas, and the limited cross-border livestock migration.

The closure of the cattle market in Garissa in Kenya and the disruption of cattle trade, will negatively impact pastoral livelihoods and the livelihoods of traders and herders dependent on cattle trade.  However, in the short term, over the next six months, it is projected that the impact on pastoral food and livelihood security will be less, as most pastoralists recovering from the drought are currently retaining cattle for restocking and high calving is anticipated in April-March ’06.  In addition, the prospect of an extremely mild Jilaal dry season ensures there is limited need to sell cattle to cover costs of water and transportation (one of the primary reasons pastoralists sell cattle during the Jilaal season).  In terms of cereals, pastoralists generally only trade sheep/goats for cereal, and these markets within Somalia remain functional.

Livestock exports and prices in the north continued to increase and peaked in December ’06 in response to the high export demand period of the Hajj.  Total live animal exports from Berbera and Bossaso ports reached approximately 3 million heads in 2006, of which 2.8 million were sheep and goats.  Total exports in 2006 reached their highest level  since the livestock ban of 2000 (124% of the average annual total exports for 2003-05) and were almost as high as the pre-1997/98 livestock ban levels (93% of the average annual total exports for 1995-97). 

In late January, Gulf States began to return livestock shipments and chilled meat from Somalia and impose an informal livestock ban in response to reported outbreaks of RVF in northeastern Kenya and suspected cases in Southern Somalia. The immediate impact of this ban on pastoralist food and livelihood security in the very short term is minimized as pastoralists have benefited from the peak export demand period (Oct. – Dec.), with high terms of trade. FSAU, however, will continue to monitor the livestock trade market, the livestock ban, and its potential impact on food and livelihood security carefully in the coming months.