Click this link to download the Post Deyr 06-07 IPC Population Tables (.pdf 47.1KB)
Click this link to download FSAU Technical Series Report on the 2006/07 Post Deyr Analysis (.zip 4930 KB)

Southern Region

Although southern Somalia continues to experience conditions of Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis the overall situation has continued to improve over the last six months. Currently, for the southern regions it is estimated that 570,000 people require humanitarian assistance and livelihood support, of which 350,000 people are in Humanitarian Emergency and 220,000 people are in a state of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.  This is a 53% reduction in the number of people in humanitarian crisis since the Gu ’06. Most of this improvement is due to the continuing pastoral and agro-pastoral recovery following two seasons of good rains since last year’s drought (drought shock was in Gu ’05 and Deyr ‘05/’06).  Of the total 570,000 people in humanitarian crisis, 84% are located in the worst drought affect areas of Gedo and Juba Region.  Of most concern are the 147,000 agriculturalists residing in the riverine areas of Juba and Gedo regions who are faced with a further deterioration in their food and livelihood security and nutrition situation and require immediate humanitarian assistance.  

The humanitarian situation of the riverine population is critical and continues to deteriorate.  Most of the rural riverine agricultural population (90%) or 133,000 people are in a state of Humanitarian Emergency and another 14,000 are in a state of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Of the two regions, Juba Region is the most severely affected by the crisis with more than 80% of the total population in crisis (of the 147,000) or 118,000 people in need of immediate humanitarian assistance located in Middle and Lower Juba. Juba was one of the regions most severely affected by floods in November and December ’06. 

In Juba floods destroyed all Deyr ‘06/’07 riverine crops, displaced an estimated 84,000 people (of which between 66-99% have returned), and led to the destruction of assets, including food stores, irrigation infrastructure, river banks, and bridges. All shallow wells and rivers are contaminated and/or silted, due to poor sanitation and flooding. Nutrition situation is Critical and at further risk of deterioration, with high numbers of acute watery diarrhoea and seasonal increases in Malaria, Measles and ARI (see FSAU Nutrition Update, January 2007).  This severe flood shock follows four and three consecutive seasons of low or completely failed riverine crop production for Lower Juba and Middle Juba, respectively. A further compounding factor is that the riverine population is socially marginalized with limited access to social support or remittances from other areas inside or outside the country.  Increased options of fishing and wild food collection, as well as the potential for off-season crop production are mitigating factors, however, this population requires continued humanitarian assistance and livelihood support.  

The food, livelihood and nutrition situation of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in both Juba and Gedo region, however, has improved since Gu ’06 and is expected to continue to improve over the next six months.  The total number of people in crisis is roughly the same as in Gu ’06, however, the improvement is seen in the shift of populations from Humanitarian Emergency to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.  In Juba 151,000 agro-pastoralists and pastoralists are identified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and 2,000 pastoralists are in Humanitarian Emergency.  The situation is more severe in Gedo, as the drought was longer and impacts more profound in this region. A total of 167,000 agro-pastoralists and pastoralists are in crisis, with 86,000 in Humanitarian Emergency and 81,000 in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.  Livestock body conditions for all species are good and the abundance of pasture and water following the exceptionally good Deyr ‘06/’07 rains means a mild dry Jilaal season and continued improvement in livestock body conditions and productivity. High sheep/goat kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept.-Oct.’06) and Deyr ‘06/’07 season and currently most cattle are conceived (from the Hagaa Sept. – Oct ’06) and high rates of calving are expected in April-May ’07.  Livestock prices have increased with improved livestock conditions for all species. For example, in Juba camel prices increased 120%, cattle 273%, and goat 165% between Dec. ’05 and Dec. ’06.  Similarly, terms of trade (local quality goat to sorghum) increased 39% from July to Dec. ’06, and 142% from Dec. ’05 to Dec. ’06.  Herd sizes, however, have not recovered, as the losses during the drought were significant (cattle 40-60%, sheep/goats 15-50%) and will take several seasons to recover. The nutrition situation also shows improvements over the last six months for most rural areas and is downgraded from Very Critical to Critical.

Bay and Bakool Regions show the most notable improvement, as most pastoral and agro-pastoralists or 350,000 people, were downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis to the usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure.  Currently, there are 75,000 people in Bakool region and only 8,000 people in Bay region who remain in a phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis for at least the next six months.  In Bay region, the population that remain in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are poor cattle pastoralists who have not yet recovered their pre-drought herds. In Bakool, the population in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are mostly from areas of Rab Dhuure and parts of El Barde and consists of the most poor and vulnerable who still have not fully recovered their assets and livelihoods from previous conflicts and last year’s drought, and still indicate critical nutrition status.  Also in Bakool, an agro-pastoral area bordering Hudur and Tieglow, also remains in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, as both the Gu ’06 and Deyr ‘06’/’07 rainfed sorghum production was below normal, due to poor rains in Gu ’06 and low yields resulting from ‘rattoon’ cropping in Deyr ‘06/’07.

Most agro-pastoral households in Bay and Bakool, however, have fully recovered from the previous drought, as there is recovery in both livestock and cereal production following two consecutive seasons of good rains (Gu ’06 and Deyr ‘06/’07).  Near normal sorghum production in the Gu ’06 (98% of PWA), provided opportunities for debt repayments and improved access to income and food.  The exceptionally good sorghum in Deyr ‘06/’07 (398% of PWA and 228% of PWA for Bakool and Bay, respectively) ensures significantly improved access to income and food, with food stores fully recovered. All livestock are in good condition, with high kidding/lambing (Feb.-May), as well as calving (April-May) expected soon due to good conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct. ’06) and Deyr ‘06/’07.  Generally, livestock holdings of agro-pastoralists are small (2 – 5 sheep/goats and 1-3 cattle for the poor), therefore with the minimal livestock stock losses during the drought (cattle losses of only 10-25% and sheep and goat losses of 0-15%), livestock herd size are fully recovered or will be within the next six months (either through kidding/calving or by purchase).   

Central Region

Pastoral areas in Galgaduud, southern Mudug, and Hiran, previously identified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, are now downgraded to their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure as the result of continuing pastoral livelihood recovery since the Gu ’06.  Water, pasture and browse is widely available and good in most areas due to the well distributed and above normal Deyr ‘06/’07 rainfall (200-300% of long term trends).  Exceptions are localized pockets in Adado, Dhusamareb, some coastal areas of Galgaduud district, and pockets in Belet Weyn and Buloburti districts.  Livestock body conditions for all species are good and high kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept.-Oct.’06) and Deyr ‘06/’07 season. Livestock prices have increased with improved livestock conditions and terms of trade (local quality goat to rice) increased 57% from July to Dec. ’06, and 100% from Jan. ’06 to Dec. ’06.  Herd sizes are considered normal, as there was minimal livestock mortality and stress sales during last year’s drought.  The nutrition situation also shows improvements over the last six months for most rural areas and is downgraded from Serious to Alert. Of concern are reports of an unknown camel disease (see Livestock section) and indications of increasing tensions and insecurity in the region, with the potential for displacement, reduced access to water and grazing, and disruptions in market access (see Civil Insecurity section).  FSAU identifies the area in Watch and will closely monitor developments and their impact on food and livelihood security. 

Similarly, in Hiran region agro-pastoral areas have also improved and are downgraded from the previous phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. In addition to improvements in livestock conditions, productivity, prices and terms of trade, Deyr ‘06/’07 rainfed sorghum production in agro-pastoral areas was near average (94% of PWA and 544% of Deyr 2005/’06).

The humanitarian situation in riverine areas of Hiran region, however, have deteriorated significantly since the Gu ’06 (previously identified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis with a high risk of falling into Humanitarian Emergency).  Currently, the situation has worsened with an estimated 10,000 people identified in Humanitarian Emergency and another 10,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. This deterioration is the result of the compounding effect of three successive seasons of crop failure (Gu ‘05 was 3%, Deyr ‘05/’06 16%, Gu ‘06 33% of PWA), followed by severe flooding this season.  Floods in late October ’06 resulted in high numbers of population displacement (roughly estimated at 102,000 people), damage to or loss of livelihood assets, destruction of 85% of all riverine crops, a reduction in agriculture labour opportunities, high cereal prices and a nutrition situation identified as Serious (10-15%).  

Northern Region

Pastoral food and livelihood security and nutrition in the 2002/03 drought affected areas of the northwest and northeast have experienced gradual, but significant recovery over the previous four seasons.  As a result, the pastoral areas of the Hawd, Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley, previously identified in Humanitarian Emergency (Gu ’03 to Gu ’04) and then downgraded to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Deyr ’04/05 to Gu ’06) are now identified as recovered and retain their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure (Map 1).  Pastoral areas of Coastal Deeh and Gagaab are also downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, following improvements over the last two seasons.

In all but localised pockets (in eastern Sanaag and the area between Garowe and Jariban districts where rains were below normal), water availability and rangeland conditions are good following Deyr ‘06/’07 rains, which were 200-300% above normal for the season. Livestock body conditions, productivity and milk production are good for all species and livestock herd sizes are now generally at pre-drought (2001-2002/03) levels.  Dispersed cases of an unidentified camel disease, originating from Ethiopia, have led to some localised rates of camel mortality of 10-20% in the Nugal Valley and Hawd pastoral areas, as well as other areas in central and southern regions (see Livestock Section).  FSAU identifies these areas in a state of Watch and will continue to monitor the spread and impact of this camel disease over the coming months. 

In line with improved livestock body conditions and increased local and export demand, livestock prices and terms of trade have improved as well. Pastoralists have benefited from a significantly improved livestock export market, in which exports are now comparable to peak pre-1997/98 livestock ban levels (see Livestock section).  Export quality goat prices in the northeast increased by 22% from December 2005 to December 2006.  At the same time over the year, rice prices remained relatively stable (SoSh 6,000/kg) leading to improved terms of trade (sheep/goats to rice). Gulf States importing livestock and chilled meat began returning shipments to Somalia in an informal livestock ban from early February following the confirmed RVF outbreak in north eastern Kenya. Although this will negatively impact negatively on the pastoralists if the ban is enforced over several months, its impact on pastoral food security in the immediate term is limited, especially as pastoralists have just benefited from the peak export season (Oct. – Jan.), with high terms of trade.  FSAU will closely monitor the enforcement of the current livestock ban and its impacts. Income from fishing in the coastal northeastern areas has also improved for the first time since the Tsunami of 2004, and frankincense production and trade in the Gagaab highland areas has also improved. 

Nutrition indicators also signify significant improvements in the areas previously identified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, with nutrition situation now only at Alert, which is an improvement over the long term nutrition trends for the area (Serious) (Nutrition Section) and most households have improved dietary diversity, consuming 4 or more food groups (FSAU Nutrition Update, January 2007).

Although the area is downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, FSAU identifies the area in Watch and will closely monitor the spread and impact of the unknown camel disease and the enforcement of the livestock ban and its impact on food and livelihood security.