Climate Analysis
Click this link to download the FSAU March 07 Climate Data Update (.pdf 408 KB)
Click this link to download the Flood Impact Summary Table
Click this link to download FSAU Technical Series Report on the 2006/07 Post Deyr Analysis (.zip 4930 KB)

The Deyr 2006/07 season rains started on time (early October) in many parts of the country and stopped in late December. Rainfall performance in terms of the intensity, coverage, and distribution over time was above normal for most of the country.  Although the Deyr 2006/07 season was characterized by a moderate El Niño event caused by above average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) throughout much of the equatorial Pacific, most regions received rainfall that was significantly less, between 50-80 percent, than the rainfall received during the 1997/98 El Niño, with no extension of the short Deyr rains season into the usually dry month of January.


                                                                      Source: USGS/FEWSNET

Total cumulative rains for the season were considerably above normal, greater than 150% of long term trends in most regions, with greater than 300% in parts of the key pastoral areas of the Juba and northern regions. Satellite imagery, confirmed by ground-truthing, indicates that water availability, crop and rangeland conditions (NDVI or Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) have improved accordingly and remain well above normal in nearly all key agricultural and pastoral areas (see FSAU/FEWSNET Climate Update, January 2007). Exceptions include localised pockets of poor rainfall in Sanaag, Bari and some coastal areas of Galgaduud.

Rainfall of 150% to greater than 300% of long term mean in the upper river catchment areas in the highlands of Ethiopia and in northeastern Kenya, coupled with the heavy in-country rainfall, led to serious flooding in the Juba and Shabelle riverine areas and in non-riverine areas, such as Afmadow district in November. Flash flooding was also reported in several other locations, including Burao (Somaliland) and Belet Hawa (Gedo Region). Flooding destroyed food stores, inundated Deyr season riverine crops, flooded villages, damaged canals, bridges and roads, disrupted transportation and market access, and displaced thousands of people.  Based on the FSAU Post Deyr ‘06/’07 Flood Impact Survey (December 2006), it is roughly estimated that a total of 255,000 people were displaced by the floods along the Juba and Shabelle rivers during the months of November and December, of which 150,000 were in the Shabelle riverine areas (including Hiran), and 105,000 in Juba riverine areas (including Gedo). In Hiran estimated flood displacement of 102,000 represented 31% of the total regional population. In Middle Juba flood displacement of 60,000 people represented 25% of the regional population. It is estimated that approximately 90% of the total flood displaced population returned to their places of origin. This does, though, hide regional and district variations where, for example, it is estimated that in Lower Juba only 66% have returned.