Agriculture Analysis
Click this link to download the Post Deyr 06-07 Cereal Crop Production Estimates Table (.pdf 10.6 KB)
Click this link to download the Gu/Karan ‘06 Cereal Crop Establishment Estimates, Northwest Table
Click this link to download FSAU Technical Series Report on the 2006/07 Post Deyr Analysis (.zip 4930 KB)

Deyr 2006/07 cereal production in southern Somalia, estimated at roughly 111,000 MT, is 113% of Deyr Post War Average (1995-2005) and 262% of Deyr ’05.  Sorghum contributes 79% to this production and maize 21%.  Sorghum production is greater than maize due to the exceptional sorghum harvest, from Bay Region in particular.  Above normal rainfall contributed to good rainfed production in many regions, with three regions recording cereal production above long term trends (Bakool 398%, Bay 228%, and Middle Juba 124% of Deyr PWA).  Cereal production in Hiran region is also near normal (94% of PWA) due to good rainfed production, despite the almost complete failure of riverine crop production. Sorghum from Bay region contributes 57% of the total Deyr ‘06/’07 cereal production.  


In addition to above normal production in Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions, several districts in other regions also had good rainfed production leading to near normal to above normal district cereal production levels, including Gabaharey district in Gedo (87% of PWA), Bulo Burti in Hiran (155% of PWA), Kismayo district in Lower Juba (370% of PWA),  and Afgoye and Wanlaweyne districts in Lower Shabelle (95% and 87% of PWA, respectively).

Deyr 2006/’07 maize production is only 50% of Deyr maize PWA production due to the failure of most of the Juba and Shabelle riverine maize production as the result of river flooding during October-November. Based on the FSAU Post Deyr Flood Impact Survey (December 2006), it is estimated that roughly 40% of the Deyr season cereal planted was flooded in riverine areas, or a total of approximately 53,000 hectares, of which 42,000 hectares was in the Shabelle Valley (including Hiran) and 11,000 was in the Juba Valley (including Gedo). In addition, it is estimated that approximately 70,000 hectares of sesame and 9,000 hectares of cowpeas were flooded. Furthermore, flash floods destroyed an estimated 22,000 hectares of rainfed sorghum in the Shabelle Valley.

Exceptional Sorghum Crop, Wajid, Bakool Region, Dec. 06

On the positive side, extensive flooding provides the opportunity for off-season flood recessional crop production, both cereal and cash crops, as well as increased opportunities for agricultural labor in the coming months. Flood recessional planting of cereals and cash crops (especially sesame) is ongoing in many riverine areas as flood waters recede and planting is expected to continue into February.  It is roughly estimated from the FSAU Flood Impact Survey (December 2006) that the recessional off-season cereal crop could contribute an additional 20,200 MT of maize in southern Somalia between March/April 2007.  Pest outbreaks, plus potential seasonal overlaps with Gu ’07 rains for late planted off-season crops may reduce this total anticipated harvest.  FSAU will conduct a post-harvest off-seasonal Deyr crop assessment in April ’07.
   
In Somaliland, the Gu/Karan ‘06 cereal production harvested in November is higher than earlier crop establishment estimates due to the exceptional performance of the Karan rains.  Cereal production is estimated to be 25,000MT, which is 147% of PWA and 97% of Gu/Karan ’05. Annual cereal production for ‘06/07 (Gu ‘06 and off-season, Gu/Karan plus Deyr ‘06/’07 and Deyr potential off-season) is estimated at around 272,000 MT, which is 101% of PWA.  This year’s annual cereal production is considerably higher than last year’s, which at 144,000 MT, was the lowest annual cereal production in a decade.  The updated 2006/07 Annual Cereal Balance Sheet (with actual production levels for Deyr’06/07) indicates that at the national level there will be no shortfall of cereal supply if the expected off-season cereal production and food aid in the pipeline are taken into account.



Currently, cereal prices in all three main southern Somalia regions are significantly lower than their peak levels in early 2006.  In the Sorghum Belt (Gedo/Hiran/Bay Bakool) January 2007 sorghum prices are 62% lower than their peak levels in March 2006; in Juba Valley January 2007 maize prices are 66% lower than their peak levels in June 2006, and in the Shabelle Valley January 2007 maize prices are 52% lower than their peak levels in May 2006.  Cereal prices peaked in early 2006 due to overall low cereal supplies following the extremely poor crop performance of the Gu ’05 and Deyr ’05/’06.  Cereal prices began to decline in most regions, following improved production in Gu ’06. Sorghum prices are continuing to decline and are expected to decline further as the bumper sorghum harvest of the Deyr season enters the market. Maize prices, however, increased slightly from December ’06 and are expected to continue to increase over the coming months, due to the overall poor performance of Deyr season maize production.  In the coming months, one of the critical risk factors to monitor will be the flow and prices of cereals from areas of high production (rainfed), to areas of low production (riverine), as well as the progress of the off-season cereal and cash crop production in riverine areas.