FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION BRIEF

Focus on Early Warning for Deepening Crisis

Issued July 23, 2008

Although the findings of the post Gu assessment will not be out before August, it is evident that the total number of people in need of humanitarian assistance (AFLC and HE), will increase from the current 2.6 million over the next six months and in the worst case scenerio could reach up to 3.5 million people by the end of the year. This is due to the combined impact of the poor Gu rains, the sustained and still increasing food prices, continuing currency devaluation, and increased conflict and civil insecurity.  Although cereal production in Bay and parts of Shabelle regions is expected to help mitigate food access constraints for farming communities, the overall impact on food prices will not be significant.  Food prices are expected to remain high, and therefore food access for market dependent households, including urban, rural poor, pastoralist and IDP populations will become increasing difficult through December this year.   

Deepening Drought and Humanitarian Emergency in Central, Hiran and Bakool:   The number of people in Humanitarian Emergency continues to increase in the drought stricken regions of central, Hiran and Bakool due to another rain failure, now the fourth consecutive season. This is confirmed by recent nutrition reports that indicate a doubling of the caseload of severely malnourished children in ACF feeding centres over the last three months in Dhusamareb, Galgadud. Severe water and pasture shortages have led to the large migration of livestock and people - affecting up to 50% of the pastoral settlements – who are now concentrating around permanent water sources.  In the central region, most of remaining boreholes are being pushed beyond capacity due to a lack of maintenance and generators.  High fuel prices are contributing to increasing water prices which are now between 300 to 1,000 percent higher than normal levels (normally 10,000 SoSh per 200lt barrel, but now 30,000- 100,000 SoSh per 200lt barrel). Livestock body conditions, productivity and value have plummeted, while pack animals and small ruminants are dying.  Most pastoralists have no export quality animals remaining and are resorting to selling breeding animals, in a desperate attempt to meet skyrocketing water and food prices.  Buying on credit is limited due to high debt levels caused by the prolonged drought.  As the next rains are not expected before mid-October, the situation will continue to deteriorate without adequate humanitarian and livelihood support interventions.  

Food Price Crisis for Market Dependent Households: Food prices, both local and imported, are at record historic levels and are still climbing.  More and more people, from both rural and urban, are falling into Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE), as they cannot cope with these sustained increasing food prices which have significantly eroded their purchasing power.   The poor and middle income households are becoming severely indebted, and are adopting extreme coping strategies, including skipping meals, begging, sale of productive assets, and out migration (‘keenan’).  

Worst Security Situation in Last 17 Years: Somalia is now facing the worst security situation in the last seventeen years, with increased armed conflict and fighting, targeting of humanitarian aid workers, military build-up, increased sea piracy, and political tension.  This situation is severely undermining economic activities and humanitarian delivery, thus contributing to the overall deterioration in the humanitarian situation.

Emergency levels of acute malnutrition continue to be reported in many parts of South and Central Somalia: Based on the findings from the surveys conducted in 2008, an estimated 180,000 children are believed to be acutely malnourished of which very limited numbers have access to rehabilitation centres. This number represents 1 in 6 of all children under the age of 5 years and is an increase of 11% in the last six months.


Implications for Action:
•     Actions to increase humanitarian space to ensure that growing number of populations in need receive assistance.

•     Scale-up of  integrated ‘emergency humanitarian assistance’ to save lives in south and central Somalia, especially in the worst affected areas suffering from drought (central, Hiran and Bakool regions), as well as in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, where the largest concentration of people in need of assistance are located.  

•     Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ to pastoralists in drought stricken areas of central, Hiran and Bakool regions to protect and prevent the total loss of livelihood assets, this could include support to improve water supply and reduce water prices, such as maintenance and repair of boreholes, back-up generators for boreholes, fuel subsidies, and water trucking. Other useful livelihood support measures could include livestock health interventions, debt relief, and the purchase of weak animals at fair prices.

•     Emergency ‘livelihood support’ for the poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with skyrocketing food prices and declining purchasing power, which could include public work programmes for cash or food, debt relief, and safety net programmes.

•  ‘Livelihood support’ interventions in areas of newly developing Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) in pastoral areas in the north, including parts of Hawd of Togdheer and Hargeisa, Nugal Valley and Sool Plateau.  Livelihood support interventions needed include water trucking, debt relief, and veterinary care.

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