FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION BRIEF

Issued May 09, 2008

The humanitarian situation in Somalia is deteriorating at an accelerated pace due to the combination of sky rocketing food prices, a significantly devalued Somali Shilling, a deepening drought following an abnormally harsh dry season and a delayed and poor start to the seasonal rains (mid-April to June), and increasing civil insecurity.  As result the number of people in need of assistance has increased to 2.6 million people (35% of the total population), which is an increase of more than 40% since January ’08 (up from 1.83 million).

This increase is mainly due to the addition of 600,000 urban poor, who now face conditions of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE). The number of internally displaced people from Mogadishu has also increased, by 21% since January and is now at  857,000 people, bringing the total number IDPS, both newly displaced IDPs from Mogadishu and the long-term protracted, to 1.1 million people.  In addition, the drought is deepening in Bakool and Central regions, pushing a further 60,000 pastoralists into Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.

FSN Brief Highlights:
Urban Poor in Crisis:  For the first time, an estimated 600,000 urban poor (20% of total urban population) living in main towns and rural settlements are now facing conditions of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE). These urban poor are struggling to cope with sky rocketing food and basic commodity prices, rapid devaluation, and declining purchasing power, according to the results of an FSAU Somalia-wide Rapid Emergency Urban Assessment (April, 2008).

Deepening Drought and Crisis for the Pastoral Populations: There is a deepening of the drought in parts of south and central Somalia, as well as deteriorations in rangeland conditions in other areas in the north, due to an abnormally harsh ‘Jilaal’ dry season (Jan. - April), that is now followed by a delayed and poor onset of the Gu seasonal rains (mid-April to June).  As a result, there has been a deterioration in the severity of the crisis from AFLC to HE  in Central, Bakool and Hiran regions and increased levels of warning of risks to further deterioration in Shabelle regions, and in the northern parts of Hawd, Sool and Nugal regions.

Early Warning for Worsening Humanitarian Situation
FSAU and FEWSNET issue an early warning that the humanitarian situation is likely to continue to deteriorate and worsen in the coming months, especially for the urban poor and drought affected rural communities. In the worst case scenario, in which the Gu seasonal rains are significantly below normal, the Somali Shilling continues to lose value, food prices increase further, and civil insecurity worsens, then we could be facing a situation whereby 3.5 million people, or half the total population of the country are in either Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) or Humanitarian Emergency (HE) by the end of the year.

Implications for Action:
Immediate scale-up in the current response to meet the increased livelihood support and humanitarian needs of 2.6 million people until the end of June, including the urban poor who are now facing conditions of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.

Contingency planning and preparations now for the worst case scenario of 3.5 million people in need of either livelihood support or humanitarian assistance by the end of 2008 is critical if response is to be timely and at appropriate levels.

The ’new food crisis’ among the urban poor demands strategic thinking and response ‘outside the box’, to enable people to access food and other essential items without leading to further harmful economic and market distortions.  Complementary interventions are needed to address underlying issues including the inability of the poor to cover the costs of a basic minimum basket of expenditures, hyperinflation, currency devaluation, and the reduction in purchasing power.

Concrete actions to ensure humanitarian actors have safe access to areas in crisis.  Humanitarian space is shrinking and it is becoming increasing dangerous for humanitarian actors at a time of greatest need.

Advocacy at all levels to resolve the political and civil insecurity issues which continue to undermine the proper functioning of markets, of internal, import, and cross-border trade, and continue to limit income earning opportunities.
 
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