Issued November 2, 2009

FSNAU Quarterly Brief - Focus on Deyr Season Early Warning

The food security situation in all livelihoods of Somalia remains as classified during the post Gu ‘09 assessment (June-July ‘09). The early Deyr rains have begun to improve the situation in the drought affected north and the central areas. There is a good off-season cereal and cash crop production in Juba regions in the South. Cereal prices have decreased in the south, except for areas that suffered from Gu ‘09 crop failure. The urban poor food security situation is showing improvement in the south, northeast and northwest, where declines in the cost of minimum basket are observed. However, for the urban poor the situation has deteriorated in central regions due to increased cereal prices and reduced social support. The central regions also have the largest number of population displaced due to the drought.  The overall civil security situation has worsened in the south and central causing displacement of over 100,000 people since July ’09.

Climate:
During Hagaa dry season scattered showers were received in parts of Juba, Shabelle and Bay regions in July-August. At the same time, Karan rains in the northwest were erratic, below average and ended early. The rest of Somalia remained dry up to September when early Deyr ‘09 rains started in the central and the northern regions.

Civil Insecurity:
The security situation in the south and the central regions has deteriorated due to intensified clashes between government forces and insurgents, causing civilian causalities, injuries and population displacement. UNHCR estimated that 123,000 people were displaced in Somalia since July ‘09, mainly due to insecurity and conflict, while drought and loss of livelihood are the second main reason for displacement, mostly affecting central and southern regions.

Agriculture:
FSNAU off-season assessment estimated good off-season production of maize and cash crops (sesame, cowpea) in Juba regions. Early Deyr rains improved the conditions of established crops in the south, as well as in the northwest, and have encouraged farmers to accelerate Deyrplanting. Cereal prices have decreased in the southern regions of Shabelle, Bay and Juba as a result of good Gu and off-season harvest.

Livestock:
Pasture and water conditions have improved following the good Deyr rains. Although livestock body conditions show improvement, livestock reproduction is below average due to low calving and kidding due to low conception during the peak of the drought. Livestock sales increased in Aug.-Oct. because of the increased demand for Hajj.

Markets:
The Somali Shilling has appreciated marginally (2-4%) in July-Sept. ’09, but depreciation is still equivalent to 90-95% compared to the 5-year average. The Somaliland Shilling has also gained value slightly (6%) after several months of devaluation. The price of sugar increased throughout Somalia. Additionally, prices increased for vegetable oil in the central regions and for petrol and rice in the northwest.

Nutrition:
FSNAU and partner agencies are currently conducting livelihood based nutrition surveys in Central, Hiran and Togdheer regions. Nevertheless, the latest figures from selective feeding centres treating moderately and severely malnourished children in south and central Somalia report a varied picture with many locations seeing increasing trends of admissions in recent months as illustrated in the feeding centers in Bakool, Central and Mogadishu.

Urban:
FSNAU carried out a seventh round of the rapid quarterly urban emergency assessment in main regional towns throughout Somalia. The analysis indicates that urban households’ access to food has begun to improve since June ’09 in most areas, with the exception of the central regions.  Urban households in the south, the north and northwest are able to cover the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMB), however, poor households are still reliant on either remittances, cash gifts or loans to cover between 20-25% of this minimum expenditure basket.


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